AEMET anticipates a warmer October-December quarter in Spain: what it could mean for accommodations

AEMET has updated its seasonal forecast for October, November, and December 2026. The agency assigns a very high probability that the average temperature will be in the warm tercile across Spain, although the signal is somewhat lower in the southwestern peninsula.

Regarding precipitation, AEMET indicates a high probability of being in the wet tercile in the northwestern and central peninsulas and Extremadura, with a more marked signal in southern Galicia, Castilla y León, and the province of Cáceres.

What it really means

A seasonal forecast does not indicate what the weather will be like on a specific day. It works with probabilities for the entire quarter and should be interpreted as a planning signal, not as a daily operational forecast.

What accommodations can review

• Heating and expected energy consumption.
• Drainage, roofs, and moisture-sensitive areas in the wetter signal zones.
• Maintenance of terraces, gardens, and outdoor spaces.
• Marketing of heated pools, outdoor areas, and seasonal getaways, always contrasting it later with short-term forecasts.

For specific decisions regarding check-ins, check-outs, safety, or weather incidents, the reference should still be the forecast and official short-term warnings.

Source: AEMET, seasonal forecast for October-November-December 2026.